Southampton experts believe the Scottish independence referendum is 'too close to call'

First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond

First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond

First published in News

THE REFERENDUM on Scottish independence is “too close to call”, according to Southampton experts.

Statistician Arkadiusz Wisniowski, from the University of Southampton, said that despite polls showing a majority of people in Scotland in favour of remaining in the UK, the odds on a Yes vote were “almost even” with just a “very slight tendency towards the status quo”.

Voters north of the border will decide the future of the UK in the referendum, which takes place in seven weeks' time on September 18.

Mr Wisniowski has said that the “outcome of the independence referendum remains uncertain as the Yes and No campaigns enter the closing stretch”.

He is involved in a project that has collected all polling data about the referendum so far.

He added: “Our forecast suggests a close result, which might surprise some readers given that support for independence has never been ahead in the polls.

“However, this reflects the narrowing of the polls in the past few months, and our model picks up this trend - and projects it forward.”

Comments (1)

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6:05pm Thu 31 Jul 14

forest hump says...

I can never understand why these "experts" waste so much time and effort on analysing poll data? It will make not one iota of difference in the result. These boffins must have nothing better to do. I sincerely hope any tax payers funds were used.
I can never understand why these "experts" waste so much time and effort on analysing poll data? It will make not one iota of difference in the result. These boffins must have nothing better to do. I sincerely hope any tax payers funds were used. forest hump
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