FROM an ever-present threat that ‘winter is coming’ to summers lasting for years, the world of Westeros in the TV hit series Game of Thrones is constantly dominated by climate extremes.

However, while the setting itself might be fictional, a group of scientists from the University of Southampton claim that real climate models could be used to simulate the conditions of different cities that were made famous by the award-winning series.

As part of the study, the scientists, who carried out their investigation under the name of Maester-in-training Samwell Tarly, used a real-world climate modelling tool to simulate and explore the environment climate of the world of Game of Thrones. The model simulations were carried out on the supercomputers of the Advanced Centre for Research Computing at Bristol University.

Their results showed that The Wall, where the land of Westeros is guarded from the White Walkers, has a climate in winter similar to that of Lapland in comparison to Casterly Rock, the stronghold of the scheming Lannisters, has a climate similar to that of Houston, Texas and Changsha in China.

The research also showed how the wind speeds and directions predicted by the climate model also explain phenomena such as the dominance of the seas by the Iron Fleet, the likely attack plans of invading dragon hordes from Essos, and the trading routes between Westeros and the Free Cities across the Narrow Sea.Meanwhile, the temperatures predicted by the climate model also indicate the likely hibernation zones of White Walkers in summer.Finally, the team estimated how global warming would affect the fictional world and found that an increase in carbon dioxide and methane emissions due to excessive use of dragons or the volatile wildfire weapon could potentially cause greenhouse gas concentrations to double, leading to a 2.1 C temperature increase.

The increase, the scientists say as a result would fall within the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for Earth, of between 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C.

Professor Gavin Foster, of University of Southampton, pictured, said: “Climate change is often described as one of the grand challenges facing humanity today and this message would be very familiar to residents of Westeros. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has shown that climate models can successfully simulate climates from the freezing world of the last Ice Age to the intense warmth of the ‘Eocene greenhouse,’ 50 million years ago. These same models are then used to simulate the future climate of our planet.”