THE National Beef Association yesterday expressed its disappointment that beef from cattle over 30 months of age will not be allowed to enter the food chain until a date, as yet unspecified, next year.

More than five million older cattle have, as a precautionary measure, been barred from human consumption in the UK since March 1996 on the grounds there could be a link between BSE in cattle and variant CJD in humans.

That connection has never been proved conclusively, and earlier this year Sir John Krebbs, chairman of the Food Standards Agency, said there was only an infinitesimal risk from eating older beef.

It had been thought that older beef would be allowed back into the food chain from January 12, 2004, but the department of health has yet to conclude its review of the Food Standards Agency's risk analysis, the outcome of which will determine the advice given to the government.

Robert Forster, chief executive of the NBA, said: ''It is unfortunate that the scheduled start has been delayed because import pressure on the market in the early part of next year will be lower than for some time, and it would have been a great deal easier than some feared for home-killed older beef to substitute overseas deliveries and build up sales.''

That assessment is based on the fact that pressure on European Union beef prices has eased significantly in recent months as a result of large tonnages of South American beef being diverted to the US since imports of beef from Canada were banned after one case of BSE was found there. There has also been a degree of consolidation in the EU beef industry, and the combined self-sufficiency level of the 15 member states has fallen from the 115% of four years ago to just 97%. In addition, there is very little EU beef in intervention stores.

Forster added: ''As a result of EU beef being sold to Russia without the need for export refunds, incoming beef is putting less pressure on EU manufacturing prices than it has done for a decade or more.

''Circumstances could not have been more favourable for the relaunch of older beef on to the home market after the new year.

''It is unfortunate that the industry is unable to take advantage of this and that

the restart faces further delay.''

Scotland would have gained from an early end to the over 30 months scheme because the national herd is heavily weighted towards specialist suckler production where the cast cows are of an intrinsi-

cally higher value.

That message is coming through loud and clear, according to Forster. ''Our Scottish members are telling us that the depreciation cost on some cows is currently in the region of (pounds) 65 per cow per year because they are having to put them through the OTMS at just 85p per kilo deadweight.

''However, in current market conditions the best cull young cows could make 120p per kilo, if not more. That would drive down depreciation costs in a well bred suckler herd to just (pounds) 20 per head.''

Some in the beef industry have said there is a real danger of a flood of older beef driving down all prices - a view that Forster does not agree with.