Sea levels are 'set to rise 8ft by 2200' say University of Southampton researchers

Daily Echo: Southampton experts say sea levels are set to rise 8ft by 2200 Southampton experts say sea levels are set to rise 8ft by 2200

IT is the doomsday scenario which will permanently change the map.

Global sea levels are set to rise twice as fast as they would naturally over the next 200 years according to a new report by Southampton academics, leaving coastal cities and towns at the mercy of the waves.

They have warned that if the rate the water is rising increases, action would be needed to avert a catastrophe. It is the latest blow for people living in seaside communities across the south who are already on flood alert as they are battered by rain, winds and high tides.

The stark warning from University of Southampton researchers comes in their new landmark report exposing the impacts of human activity on world climate change.

The scientists and oceanographers reveal sea level changes have rapidly increased above natural standards since the industrial revolution.

Now they forecast sea levels rising by 80cm (31.44in) by 2100 and by 2.5m (8.2ft) by 2200.

The joint study with the Australian National University used geological evidence from the past few million years to understand the background pattern of natural sea level rises.

This compares with historical tide-gauge and satellite observations of sea level change for the “global warming” period since the industrial revolution.

The background pattern looks only at how fast sea levels might change if only natural process were at work rather than speculating about new mechanisms that might develop due to man-made global warming.

Report co-author Dr Ivan Haigh, a University of South-ampton coastal oceanography lecturer who also works for the Natural Environment Research Council said: “Historical observations show a rising sea level from about 1800 as sea water warmed up and melt water from glaciers and ice fields flowed into the oceans.

“Around 2000, sea level was rising by about three millimetres per year. That may sound slow, but it produces a significant change over time.”

The background pattern allowed the team to see whether recent sea level changes are exceptional or within the normal range, and whether they are faster, equal, or slower than natural changes.

They concluded the sea-level was “just within” natural expectations, but was still quite fast by natural standards.

Lead author Professor Eelco Rohling, a former University of Southampton student now at the Australian National University, said: “Based on our natural background pattern, only about half the observed sea level rise would be expected.

“Continued monitoring of future sea level rise will show if and when it goes outside the natural range. If that happens, then this means that our current understanding falls short, potentially with severe consequences.”

The study was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Australian Research Council and is published in the online journal Scientific Reports.

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2:59pm Wed 8 Jan 14

southy says...

That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise
That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise southy

3:07pm Wed 8 Jan 14

Dave of Dibden says...

That's OK I shall be long dead !!!
That's OK I shall be long dead !!! Dave of Dibden

3:16pm Wed 8 Jan 14

forest hump says...

Whatever Mother Nature decides, there is not a single thing we can do to prevent. All of these reports are no more than educated guesses by institutions looking for more cash to report another lot of scaremongering drivel. Shame on them all. Africa used to be joined to South America, I suppose Continental Drift is down to Neanderthals abusing the environment? Why don't these academics spend their time and effort on something of benefit that is accountable?
Whatever Mother Nature decides, there is not a single thing we can do to prevent. All of these reports are no more than educated guesses by institutions looking for more cash to report another lot of scaremongering drivel. Shame on them all. Africa used to be joined to South America, I suppose Continental Drift is down to Neanderthals abusing the environment? Why don't these academics spend their time and effort on something of benefit that is accountable? forest hump

3:25pm Wed 8 Jan 14

acid drop says...

Dave of Dibden wrote:
That's OK I shall be long dead !!!
yes me as well
[quote][p][bold]Dave of Dibden[/bold] wrote: That's OK I shall be long dead !!![/p][/quote]yes me as well acid drop

4:03pm Wed 8 Jan 14

freefinker says...

southy wrote:
That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise
.. total and utter rubbish. And it's not just ice melting that causes sea level rises. The thermal expansion of the oceans due to increased temperatures is a considerable factor as well.

"The complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a contribution to sea-level rise of up to 7 m and about 5 m, respectively" - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

You haven't a clue what you are talking about, as usual.
[quote][p][bold]southy[/bold] wrote: That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise[/p][/quote].. total and utter rubbish. And it's not just ice melting that causes sea level rises. The thermal expansion of the oceans due to increased temperatures is a considerable factor as well. "The complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a contribution to sea-level rise of up to 7 m and about 5 m, respectively" - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 You haven't a clue what you are talking about, as usual. freefinker

4:38pm Wed 8 Jan 14

Torchie1 says...

freefinker wrote:
southy wrote:
That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise
.. total and utter rubbish. And it's not just ice melting that causes sea level rises. The thermal expansion of the oceans due to increased temperatures is a considerable factor as well.

"The complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a contribution to sea-level rise of up to 7 m and about 5 m, respectively" - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

You haven't a clue what you are talking about, as usual.
God loves a trier!
[quote][p][bold]freefinker[/bold] wrote: [quote][p][bold]southy[/bold] wrote: That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise[/p][/quote].. total and utter rubbish. And it's not just ice melting that causes sea level rises. The thermal expansion of the oceans due to increased temperatures is a considerable factor as well. "The complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a contribution to sea-level rise of up to 7 m and about 5 m, respectively" - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 You haven't a clue what you are talking about, as usual.[/p][/quote]God loves a trier! Torchie1

5:17pm Wed 8 Jan 14

Sailor Steve says...

southy wrote:
That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise
As the article states current sea level rise is over 3mm per year from satellite radar observations (actually 3.2mm). That means that in 100 years global sea levels will rise 320mm - which is more than a foot. Southy has shot himself in the foot once again.
[quote][p][bold]southy[/bold] wrote: That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise[/p][/quote]As the article states current sea level rise is over 3mm per year from satellite radar observations (actually 3.2mm). That means that in 100 years global sea levels will rise 320mm - which is more than a foot. Southy has shot himself in the foot once again. Sailor Steve

5:26pm Wed 8 Jan 14

Quentin Heslop says...

I better get the garden furniture in.
I better get the garden furniture in. Quentin Heslop

6:45pm Wed 8 Jan 14

Stillness says...

If only the university knew southy they could have saved themselves a lot of effort.
If only the university knew southy they could have saved themselves a lot of effort. Stillness

6:54pm Wed 8 Jan 14

Brusher Mills says...

acid drop wrote:
Dave of Dibden wrote:
That's OK I shall be long dead !!!
yes me as well
I won't be as I'm immortal hence the reason why the article said this is the latest blow for communities living near the sea. It's just terrible what will I do?
[quote][p][bold]acid drop[/bold] wrote: [quote][p][bold]Dave of Dibden[/bold] wrote: That's OK I shall be long dead !!![/p][/quote]yes me as well[/p][/quote]I won't be as I'm immortal hence the reason why the article said this is the latest blow for communities living near the sea. It's just terrible what will I do? Brusher Mills

8:16pm Wed 8 Jan 14

WILLIAM HAGUES TWIN BROTHER. says...

drink it ,desalination plants.
drink it ,desalination plants. WILLIAM HAGUES TWIN BROTHER.

8:35pm Wed 8 Jan 14

FoysCornerBoy says...

I remember seeing some reliable forecast data last year which suggests that - unless there is urgent action on man-made climate change - sea levels will rise by 25 cm by as soon as 2050 (i.e. when most of the current generation is still likely to be alive) and this will leave many parts of our coastal and estuarial settlements submerged. Large cities like Hull will totally disappear; no wonder the city fathers there are beginning to take this subject seriously. I think we all need to.
I remember seeing some reliable forecast data last year which suggests that - unless there is urgent action on man-made climate change - sea levels will rise by 25 cm by as soon as 2050 (i.e. when most of the current generation is still likely to be alive) and this will leave many parts of our coastal and estuarial settlements submerged. Large cities like Hull will totally disappear; no wonder the city fathers there are beginning to take this subject seriously. I think we all need to. FoysCornerBoy

10:04pm Wed 8 Jan 14

dolomiteman says...

I was worried they meant 2200 today so have gone to higher ground but it's now 2205 and still no signs of the Ark.
I was worried they meant 2200 today so have gone to higher ground but it's now 2205 and still no signs of the Ark. dolomiteman

11:43pm Wed 8 Jan 14

The Mad Dog says...

That'll be Dibden Bay down the drain then!
That'll be Dibden Bay down the drain then! The Mad Dog

9:43am Thu 9 Jan 14

Carpe Diem says...

Sailor Steve wrote:
southy wrote:
That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise
As the article states current sea level rise is over 3mm per year from satellite radar observations (actually 3.2mm). That means that in 100 years global sea levels will rise 320mm - which is more than a foot. Southy has shot himself in the foot once again.
According to your calcs a rise of 320mm in 100 years, 640mm in 200 years = 25 inches. Definitely not 8 feet. I tend to agree with Southy on this one. I'd love to see somebody compile a list of all the predictions that have come out from all institutions to see just how many they got right - I suspect very few.
[quote][p][bold]Sailor Steve[/bold] wrote: [quote][p][bold]southy[/bold] wrote: That is rubbish the sea will not rise by 8 foot, there,s not enough Ice and Snow, it would take the sea to rise 3 degrees to get 1 foot of sea rise[/p][/quote]As the article states current sea level rise is over 3mm per year from satellite radar observations (actually 3.2mm). That means that in 100 years global sea levels will rise 320mm - which is more than a foot. Southy has shot himself in the foot once again.[/p][/quote]According to your calcs a rise of 320mm in 100 years, 640mm in 200 years = 25 inches. Definitely not 8 feet. I tend to agree with Southy on this one. I'd love to see somebody compile a list of all the predictions that have come out from all institutions to see just how many they got right - I suspect very few. Carpe Diem

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