FOR the first time in Winchester’s political history the outcome of a general election is too close to call.

Never before have two politicians, Steve Brine for the Conservatives and Martin Tod for the Liberal Democrats, been so clearly running neck and neck.

Although the May 1997 election ended in the famous two-vote victory for Lib Dem Mark Oaten, it had been considered a Tory certainty until the last few days.

The then-MP Gerry Malone even told friends when the election was announced that he just wanted a “nice quiet election”.

There is no chance of such career-ending complacency in 2010. Mr Tod and Mr Brine have been campaigning for years. Both say it is impossible to predict, although the bookies make Mr Tod the slight favourite.

Winchester is part of the Lib Dems’ “Golden Triangle” with Romsey and Eastleigh, and the party is putting huge effort into retaining all three.

On paper the 2005 majority of 7,500 looks comfortable, but one big factor is the boundary changes that have radically reshaped the constituency. The largely rural, Tory-supporting Meon Valley has become a new constituency while Winchester has gained the leafier end of Chandler’s Ford. The switch is thought to marginally favour the Lib Dems. The notional majority is down to around 6,500.

An interesting twist is that the Conservatives are urging people to vote tactically if they want to see the back of Labour nationally. Usually the Tories are the ones to have suffered from electors voting tactically with the aim of keeping someone out.

Mr Brine argues that the Tories are the only party nationally that can oust Labour, so a vote for the Lib Dems would in effect be wasted.

He said: “People know that only Labour or Tories can form a Government. If they want rid of Brown, they know that if we win Winchester, Brown will go.”

Mr Tod said the impact of Nick Clegg at the TV debate last week had boosted a swing to the Lib Dems: “We have seen a definite shift in our direction. I never take anything for granted. I always assume disaster is about to strike.”

Standing for the fourth time for Labour is the former city councillor Patrick Davies. His vote has been squeezed over the years but he is reporting no further slippage.

Mr Davies said: “Labour has won the argument on big issues like the NHS and schools with its investment. People will always have a moan but they acknowledge what Labour has done has been of huge benefit – getting a hospital operation so much quicker, the bus passes, the minimum wage is now just accepted and considered normal but it jolly well wasn’t 13 years ago.”

Also contesting is UKIP and the English Democrats. For UKIP Jocelyn Penn-Bull will hope to lure mainly disaffected Tories unhappy that David Cameron has backtracked on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

Mark Lancaster for the English Democrats is a retired policeman. The relatively new party’s impact is an unknown although he too will probably appeal most to Conservative-minded voters.