10:32am Tuesday 1st December 2009
By Peter Law
TWELVE months ago, Southampton was staring into the abyss as the global financial crisis swept the world.
The Daily Echo reported how jobs were disappearing, house prices were plummeting, shops were shutting – and there was worse to come.
By February, even the most optimistic leaders had to concede that the city was in serious trouble, with construction at a standstill and hundreds more jobless signing onto the dole each month.
While there’s no doubt many local people are still reeling from the worst recession in 100 years, it seems Southampton can look to 2010 with more confidence.
Official statistics, compiled for the city’s leaders and obtained by the Echo, appear to be evidence of the first green shoots of recovery. The figures show: ● Average house prices in Southampton have increased every month since June.
● The number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance has dropped for the first time in two years.
● The number of job vacancies at JobCentre Plus is steadily rising.
● The monthly number of housing benefit claimants is falling.
The statistics might be an early Christmas present for the city, but they come with a word of warning from local estate agents, recruitment agencies and traders.
Many told the Echo that while the economic situation is improving, times are still tough and a true reflection of the state of the city won’t be known until next year.
Southampton city centre manager Ian McClurg-Welland said retailers were hopeful of the best festive shopping season for two years.
“Things are already looking useful in terms of footfall and we are hopeful that will translate into sales,” he said.
“It could be a good Christmas compared to the past two and things are starting to improve, but the proof is in the pudding when we see the actual figures after Christmas.”
There are currently 137 empty shops in Southampton, compared with 82 last November, however last month the number of vacant stores actually dropped by two.
Mr McClurg-Welland added: “We cannot say the worst is over, it’s still very tough for retailers. Towns and cities up and down the country are experiencing the same thing.”
One area where Southampton appears to be faring better than many other parts of Britain is in the housing market.
The average house price in the city dropped from £162,013 in October 2007 to a low of £133,030 in June this year.
But values have been rising ever since and by the end of September, the latest Land Registry figures available, the average house price had climbed back up to £137,786.
The 3.6 per cent local increase compares with a rise of 3.2 per cent across England and Wales over the same period.
“It’s improved a lot. I am in a situation now where I cannot satisfy demand as there is a shortage of properties. I have got three or four buyers for every house,” Nigel Rowe, manager of the Bitterne branch of estate agents Cubitt and West, said.
“Over the past three months we have seen steady growth in prices and demand for properties, we have even seen properties go for over their asking price. From a buyer’s perspective, I would not hang around because you can no longer drive prices down.”
Thurman Rye Southampton branch manager Phil Lovell added: “We are starting to get nearer the asking price again, but that is maybe because we are asking a more reasonable price.”
However Morris Dibben managing director Nick Freeth believes a “false market”
has been created by the lack of properties for sale.
“We have been selling houses steadily all year, but it’s being driven by a lack of supply,” Mr Freeth explained.
“What we are not seeing is first time buyers and until we do we are not in a real world. The problem is they need clean credit and a substantial deposit to secure a mortgage.
“Homeowners are also choosing to pay off their mortgages, which are the lowest they’ve ever been, rather than putting their home on the market.”
Mr Freeth said more properties and an easing of lending to clients were needed to stabilise the market.
“We have had a lot better year than last year and I don’t think it’s going to get worse, but I don’t think we will see a true reflection of the market until after next year’s election,”
he said.
Southampton’s latest unemployment figures, while still depressingly high, are another cause for hope.
By September, the number of jobless in the city had more than doubled in the space of two years to 7,850, but October saw the first fall, to 7,590 unemployed, since the downturn began.
The city’s unemployment rate is at about 3.3 per cent, which is half the national rate of 7.7 per cent and still continuing to rise.
Bernadette Hagan, head of operations in Hampshire for Jobcentre Plus, said: “We have seen more money invested in getting people back to work and we’ve been able to offer more help for people and continue to do this every day.”
Wendy Freeman, Southampton branch manager of recruitment agency Office Angels, said the figures reflected the fact more vacancies were becoming available.
“For about six months there was hardly any administration jobs around because support staff were the first to lose their jobs,” Ms Freeman said.
“We had to diversify to survive and started recruiting positions such as project managers and account executives. Our clients were receiving hundreds of CVs for each job and they really could have the pick of the bunch.
“It still is an employer’s market, but things are certainly turning around. We are back in our niche with about 80 per cent of our jobs being administration.”
Carol-Anne Phypers, Southampton branch manager at Staff 2000, added: “A lot of our work is in health and that is one area that was not hit by the recession because elderly people always need care.
“When the university year finished we had a lot of graduates come to us who were unable to get jobs. We’ve also had a lot of students work in care homes while they’re doing their degree.”
Wessex Business Link managing director Jonathan Morris said people were also now eyeing an opportunity to become self-employed or to start up their own enterprise.
Elsewhere the figures show falls last month in the number of people presenting as homeless, referrals to the council’s Welfare Rights Unit and housing benefit claimants.
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