A SOUTHAMPTON academic is to chair an independent inquiry into opinion poll accuracy after almost every survey underestimated the Tory lead over Labour, the British Polling Council (BPC) has announced.
The body, which acts as the association for opinion pollsters, has announced that Professor Patrick Sturgis from the University of Southampton, will look into the causes of the “apparent bias” and make recommendations for future polls.
Professor Sturgis works in the university's department for social sciences: social statistics and demography.
The move comes after political observers were shocked to see last night's exit poll showing the Tories comfortably ahead of Labour as the largest party, which was then followed by David Cameron's party winning an overall majority.
In the run up to polling day, almost every major national poll had predicted the race was neck and neck and too close to call.
The BPC, which counts all major UK pollsters among its members, said in a statement: “The final opinion polls before the election were clearly not as accurate as we would like, and the fact that all the pollsters underestimated the Conservative lead over Labour suggests that the methods that were used should be subject to careful, independent investigation.
“The British Polling Council, supported by the Market Research Society, is therefore setting up an independent inquiry to look into the possible causes of this apparent bias, and to make recommendations for future polling.
“We are pleased to announce that Professor Patrick Sturgis, who is Professor of Research Methodology and Director of the ESRC National Centre for Research Methods, has agreed to chair the inquiry, and will take the lead in setting its terms of reference.
“The membership of the inquiry will be announced in due course.”
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