IN 2010 Winchester was considered too close to call until the day of the count.

One of the Liberal Democrats’ most iconic seats during its rise to national power, it was widely thought its candidate Martin Tod would hold on.

As it happened, Tory Steve Brine won with a surprisingly comfortable 3,000-plus majority.

It was a belated return to the natural order. Largely affluent Winchester has always been a Conservative seat except for 1945 when, incorporated with Eastleigh, it was taken by Labour.

The roots of Mark Oaten’s triumph lay in the civil war within the local Tory party in the 1980s during the tenure of John Browne when, amid his acrimonious divorce, he was one of the first MPs caught out not declaring financial interests.

By 2010 the Conservatives were again fully united and Mr Brine was also able to take advantage of the end of the personal vote for Mr Oaten.

There is no chance that Mr Brine will be complacent against the Lib Dems certain to be his main challengers.

He said the election was about more than what happens locally: “Winchester is not an isolated island state – it’s a part of the country. All of the national noise there’s been around Miliband and the SNP is coming back on the doorstep.

It’s a very positive response I’m getting.

“Maybe this is not naturally a Lib Dem voting constituency – if there is such a constituency.

People voted for my predecessor Mark Oaten because he did a good job as a constituency MP.”

The election is taking place against the backdrop of the highly controversial Silver Hill development, the £165 million plan to rebuild a chunk of the city centre for homes and shops.

A protest march last November attracted 1,000 people but it is unclear how the two major parties can exploit it as both have been heavily involved in contentious decisions.

Mr Brine’s strongest opponent will be Jackie Porter, the long-serving Lib Dem county councillor. Asked about her prospects, she said: “It’s close.

I’m well known and have got lots of people who believe the Lib Dems represent what they stand for.

“I have been finding out more about the local economy, talking to people right across the whole constituency, finding out what is important to people.”

The NHS is again a big issue; Winchester could see a new £168 million critical treatment unit and cancer centre built near Basingstoke raising concerns over the downgrading of the Royal Hampshire County Hospital.

Labour’s Mark Chaloner, a Southampton city councillor, was bullish about his prospects. “The campaign is going well. We are getting a good response. Of course in Winchester we know the odds are against us.”

The rise of the Lib Dems locally had been at the expense of Labour. But now the tide is turning, he says. “After their broken promises (over tuition fees) they have disillusioned everybody.”

The great unknown in Winchester is how much UKIP will pick up votes and from whom. They did very well in the Eastleigh by-election in 2013 but only polled about two per cent in Winchester in 2010.

Its candidate Martin Lyon, a county councillor, said: “If we were to have polled eight per cent we will have done very well.”

That would still be a quadrupling of support. Mr Lyon aims to attract the support of people who are disillusioned with politics and have stopped voting.

The Chandler’s Ford- Hiltingbury area is proving fruitful territory, he told the Daily Echo.

Michael Wilks is standing for the Greens, the first time since 1987 they have contested a General Election in Winchester.

He said: “People are beginning to wake up to the fact that this [air pollution] is a problem that governments don’t seem to be able to tackle.

“We’ve found a lot of support.

"Small parties have come rather more important, not just from the point of view of giving the main parties an overall majority.

"But the fact that politics is becoming quite diverse – there are various new parties that reflect people’s beliefs.”

Additional reporting by Charlotte Neal and Duncan Geddes

CONSTITUENCY PROFILE

Daily Echo:

WINCHESTER and Chandler’s Ford covers the cathedral city and then much of the city council district, including Kings Worthy, Sparsholt, Sutton Scotney, Compton, Twyford, Otterbourne, Colden Common and Alresford, stretching into the South Downs National Park.

The constituency also includes the Chandler’s Ford and Hiltingbury suburbs of Eastleigh.

From 1997 to 2010 it was held by Liberal Democrat Mark Oaten, who famously snatched the seat by two votes from Conservative Gerry Malone.

PR man Steve Brine won the seat by 3,048 votes from Martin Tod following Mr Oaten’s retirement from politics.

General Election result, 2010

Con: Steve Brine 27,155

Lib Dem: Martin Tod 24,107

Labour: Patrick Davies 3,051

UKIP: Jocelyn Penn-Bull 1,139

Eng Dem: Mark Lancaster 503

Majority: 3,048

Turnout: 75.8 per cent