CONSERVATIVES are heading for a big majority in the Christmas election, according to a new poll.

The poll, from YouGov, shows that Boris Johnson is on course for a comfortable majority with the Tories winning 359 seats if the election were held today.

Labour would win 211 seats, meaning a loss of 44 constituencies, the SNP would win 43 and the Liberal Democrats winning just 13 seats.

That result would give Mr Johnson a majority of 68.

In our area, it shows almost a clean sweep for the Conservatives, with Labour winning just one seat in the Southampton area.

The YouGov poll, which accurately predicted the 2017 election, interviewed approximately 100,000 panelists about their 2019 voting intentions.

To come up with estimates for each constituency they have used a technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification, or MRP.

MRP is using the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model that relates interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions.

The poll suggests Romsey and Southampton North would be held by Conservative Caroline Nokes, winning with 51.21% of the vote, with Liberal Democrats coming second with 35.27%.

Southampton Itchen would also be held by the Conservatives, despite the 2017 election being so close with just 31 seats in it.

However, the poll suggests Royston Smith would hold his seat with 49.38% of the vote and Simon Letts finishing with 38.73%.

Southampton Test is predicted a win of 49% for Labour, with the Tories coming second with 34%.

A full list of the predicted results are:

Romsey and Southampton North

Con: 51.21%

Lab: 11.49%

LD: 35.27%

Other: 2.04%

Southampton, Itchen

Con: 49.38%

Lab: 38.73%

LD: 6.38%

Green: 3.5%

Other: 2%

Southampton, Test

Con: 34%

Lab: 49%

LD: 7%

Green: 3%

Brexit: 5%

Other: 2%

New Forest East

Con: 56.58%

Lab: 14.72%

LD: 21.57%

Green: 4.68%

Other: 2.46%

New Forest West

Con: 62.53%

Lab: 13.51%

LD: 20.46%

Green: 3.49%


Con: 53.03%

Lab: 10.38%

LD: 32.76%

Green: 3.84%


Con: 46.79%

Lab: 7.5%

LD: 44.1%

Other: 1.61%


Con: 58.56%

Lab: 22.21%

LD: 15.78%

Green: 3.45%

Meon Valley

Con: 60.6%

Lab: 13.97%

LD: 21.04%

Green: 4.39%


Con: 62.24%

Lab: 22.34%

LD: 11.31%

Green: 4.11%

Residents are set to hit the polls on December 12.