BUSINESSES in Winchester are feeling confident for the future after a difficult year.

The Business Improvement District Barometer Report for the first quarter of 2021 has been published, based on 46 city centre companies (20 national chains and 26 independents).

It shows that since the start of the pandemic, sales have taken a huge hit, cash flow has been difficult and rental payments have been postponed.

But seven out of ten of the firms have not made any staff redundant, and the overall median confidence score for the rest of the year is +5 on a scale of -10 to 10.

It is +8 for non-retailers (professional services and consulting). The overall score was +2 and -2.5 respectively this time last year.

The median reduction in sales in Winchester city centre between Quarter One 2021 and Quarter 1 2020 is 60 per cent.

Sales in retail and hospitality have fallen by 72 per cent but sales in the ‘non-retail’ sector are unchanged. It is estimated that estate agents’ sales have doubled.

As a benchmark, the median change in retail sales between 2019 and 2018 was +3 per cent.

The Barometer Report states that Winchester’s retail sales performance over the past two years may have been worse than the national picture.

"One reason is that the sectors highly represented in the city centre (consumer discretionary, clothes, fashion, shoes and hospitality) are precisely the ones which have suffered the most during the pandemic," it reads.

"They account for 85 per cent of the businesses in the Barometer’s sample."

Around 43 per cent of businesses reported cash flow difficulties during the past 12 months – 50 per cent for independents.

Just over one-third of BID businesses, whether they are nationals or independents, anticipate continuing cash flow problems during the rest of 2021.

More than a quarter of businesses (27 per cent) have postponed rental payments to landlords.

The report adds: "Annual sales across all sectors are now expected to rise by 2 per cent. Online sales are rising rapidly so that the proportion of digital revenues may be as high as 40 per cent – 50 per cent compared to 15 per cent – 20 per cent recently.

"The proportion of independent businesses anticipating cash flow problems has fallen from over 40 per cent to 35 per cent. A minority of independent businesses think that their rent is too high.

"The city centre retail property vacancy rate is falling; from 11.2 per cent at the start of 2021 to 10 per cent now with the prospect of further reductions this year and in 2022."

Published by John Kind, Honorary Professor at Winchester Business School, and Sara Arnold, Principal, the report is based on the feedback received from 46 BID members in Winchester during

April 2021.

"This is a smaller sample than usual since it has been difficult to obtain all the information we would like as ‘non-essential’ retailers only re-opened just over two weeks ago - on April 12," it says.

"A word of caution is, therefore, necessary; the findings may not give a completely accurate picture for businesses generally."