Southampton: Will Conservatives or Labour win at the general election?

A YouGov poll has aggregated the latest polls and applied them to the last election’s constituency level results to see which political party would win a snap election.

Their latest prediction has a Labour majority the likeliest outcome at 93 per cent, with only a 2 per cent chance of a majority for the Conservatives nationally.

In Southampton, it’s predicted that Southampton Itchen would swing from Conservative to Labour control – with the latter having a 97 per cent chance of winning the seat.

The electronic calculator also predicts that Labour would hold onto Southampton Test – with a 99 per cent chance of winning – while the Conservatives would retain their seat in Romsey and Southampton North – holding off the Liberal Democrats, with a 58 per cent chance of winning.

Commenting on the findings, Southampton Itchen MP Royston Smith, who will stand down at the next general election, told the Echo: “The Conservative Party is in the doldrums, no doubt about it but we’ve here before.

Royston Smith MP

“People aren’t stupid, and Labour would do well to spend their time making the case for government rather than looking at websites predicting results.

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“They are starting to take the next election for granted and we saw what happened when Theresa May did that.”

He added: “She too was 20 points ahead going into the 2017 general election and lost her majority.

“My constituents have seen Labour close up in Southampton.

“They have brought the city council to its knees and now expect to be returned as the city’s next MP’s.

“My successor has every chance of winning next year and I wouldn’t write the Conservatives off yet.”

Satvir Kaur, leader of Southampton City Council – who has been selected to replace MP Alan Whitehead as the Labour candidate for Southampton Test at the next election – told the Echo:

“Liz Truss may have resigned a year ago, but her legacy and disastrous economics continues to have a crushing impact, with individuals and families in Southampton struggling with the rising cost of everything from food, energy, to mortgages.

Satvir Kaur (Image: Chris Moorhouse.)

“Recent by-election wins for Labour show that we are being trusted again in places we have never before.

“The Labour Party are increasingly showing they are ready to govern.”

She added: “In Southampton, we know we have to keep fighting for every vote and are not being complacent, but increasingly people on the doorsteps tell us they are fed up with the current chaotic Conservatives and will be voting Labour, some for the first time.

“For many, a general election and a new Labour government cannot come soon enough.”