TOMORROW'S clash brings a welcome distraction from this week's events - and, indeed, the league campaign - with Saints the shortest price we have seen all season at just 4-11 for the home win.

This means Bury can be backed at 7-1 to pull off one of the shocks of the fourth round and I daresay that some punters may believe this represents some slight value. They are wrong.

A neutral backer could look at a managerless Saints, the Shakers' surprise victory over Norwich in the third round and the little-mentioned win at Leeds in the Football League Trophy and surmise that sevens is a reasonable.

After those stats, though, there is nothing to suggest that Chris Brass's side have much hope of winning.

Bury have won just six games in the bottom division and come here with a meagre two points from the last possible 18 on the road.

As erratic as Saints' form has been from the opening day, it is impossible to look past the home win.

Of course, we have no intention of backing them at 4-11 and must revert to lumping on the side to be in front at both half and full-time.

This has been the case in six out of our seven St Mary's victories so far and the 4- 5 on offer is a great price for the bigger hitting outright punter and a very handy accumulator filler for the rest of us.

Correct score backers are strongly urged to back the home win to nil.

The last ten SMS games have brought a massively impressive seven clean sheets with just five conceded (three against Watford).

However, I would be slightly cagey in predicting the amount of goals we will net.

Bury's only relatively heavy defeat came via a 3-0 loss to in-form Darlington. A comfortable 2-0 win has the right ring about it at an acceptable 6-1.

Using a pin still seems as good as method as finding the first scorer. I've been told the Bury defence is somewhat one-paced and Bradley Wright-Phillips' speed could unlock the door for the opener.

If nothing else, tomorrow's line-up should be interesting as we now can gauge just how much Burley was in agreement with the rest of the backroom staff.

Saints can still be backed at 125-1 for the Cup but a win here and a favourable fifth-round draw will almost certainly see this price halved.

Match odds:
Saints 4-11, Bury 7-1, Draw 11-4

Correct score:
Saints 1-0: 6-1, Saints 2-0: 6-1, Saints 2-1: 7-1, Saints 3-0: 6-1, Saints 3-1: 9-1,
Bury 1-0: 12-1, Bury 2-0: 40-1, Bury 2-1: 28-1, Bury 3-0: 80-1, Bury 3-1: 66-1,
Draw 0-0: 12-1, 1-1: 6-1, 2-2: 20-1

First/Last Scorer:
Rasiak 9-2, Wright-Phillips 9-2, John 9-2, Saganowski 5-1, Surman 7-1, Bishop 10-1, Euell 10-1, Viafara 12-1, Hammill 12-1, Wright 16-1, O'Halloran 25-1, Davies 25-1, Powell 25-1, Ostlund 33-1

FA Cup:
Liverpool 7-2, Man United 7-2, Chelsea 4-1, Arsenal 9-2, City 10-1, Pompey 10-1, Spurs 14-1, Newcastle 20-1, Boro 33-1, Saints 125-1, Havant 5,000-1

For more of Kevin's tips, don't miss this weekend's copy of The Pink.