It’s been something of a weird start to the new campaign for Saints. Not even two months into the 2022/23 season and things have swayed through the full range of emotions from genuine worry to thrilling excitement.
The summer’s youthful rebuild has given cause for optimism with a new spine running through Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side but the transfer window was unable to solve all of last season’s issues.
Most felt an attacking overhaul was a necessity coming into the summer and Saints did work to address their problems in the final third as Joe Aribo, Sekou Mara, and Samuel Edozie arrived at St Mary’s.
READ MORE: Are Saints over or underperforming? What the data tells us about new season
Despite rumours linking both with moves away from the club, strikers Che Adams and Adam Armstrong have stuck around but cravings for a new marquee centre-forward went unfulfilled. A late push for PSV’s Cody Gakpo fell short and now Saints will have to get to at least January with Adams, Armstrong, and Mara as their forward options.
Shifting away from his 4-2-2-2 system, Hasenhuttl has largely utilised a 4-3-3 formation this season after initially trialing a back five. That set-up has pushed Armstrong wide and Adams up front on his own and while they have found success in patches, certain issues remain from last season.
In Part 1 of this early season data dump, we looked at the make-up of this Saints squad, patterns that have developed in their seven games, and what the expected goals results tell us about how they should be doing. You can read Part 1 by clicking here.
Now, we'll go deeper in Part 2...
On The Ball
After scoring just nine goals in their final 12 games of the 2021/22 campaign, Saints have once again been hit and miss in front of goal this time around. They’ve failed to find the net in three of the last four games, paying the price in all three 1-0 defeats.
Yesterday we touched on Saints' slight underperformance in terms of expected goals thanks to a few big missed chances but at least part of the problem has been actually creating chances to miss. That was certainly the case against Aston Villa when they mustered six shots, just one on target.
The dismal defeat provided a window into one of Saints’ largest problems: breaking down stubborn and deep defensive sides. With the majority of possession, Saints found no way through Steven Gerrard’s defence and it’s not the first time. In the three games this season when they’ve had more of the ball, Saints have claimed zero points while taking 1.75 points per game in the four games they’ve had less than 50% of the ball.
But it goes slightly deeper than that. In those three games with more ball, Saints have taken 36 shots - 12 per game - with eight on target (22%). In the other four, they’ve only created three more shots total - 9.75 per game - but 16 have been on target (41%).
Overall Saints rank 13th in the Premier League for average possession with 45.6% but they’ve thus far been one of the more direct sides in the division. Hasenhuttl’s side rank 17th for passes per game with 313.5 and 19th for pass success rate at 79.4%. Such a low passing success number is usually a sign of many long balls and unsurprisingly Saints rank 7th for long passes per game.
The direct nature of Saints’ attacking play can also be seen in how they try to get the ball into the box, averaging 14.72 crosses per game - 7th-most in the league. And while the last two scoreless outings haven’t inspired, Saints have found some success with their direct play, managing 18.76 touches in the box per game (7th-most) and 9.77 shots per game (11th-most). Both of those are impressive numbers considering how few passes they've played.
Of course, we’ve now seen the downside to such a direct approach when faced against a physically imposing defensive-first team like Aston Villa.
An interesting wrinkle to Saints’ attacking play early on this season has been their right-side dominance.
Last season, 42% of Saints’ attacks came down the left side of the pitch - joint-most in the league. This season, that has flipped with 41% of attacks coming down the right side of the pitch - second-most after Wolves.
As discussed previously, some of this at least has been due to Hasenhuttl’s utilisation of Moussa Djenepo as a left-back in the absence of Romain Perraud. Despite his attacking tendencies, Djenepo was largely instructed to stay deep while Kyle Walker-Peters drove forward on the right side.
Walker-Peters’ attacking excellence is no doubt another reason for Saints’ right-side dominance. Last season Walker-Peters frequently played at left-back with Tino Livramento on the right but with the latter out for an extended period of time due to a serious knee injury, Walker-Peters has shifted back over to the right where he has been a focal point of Saints’ attack thus far.
Hasenhuttl’s side have managed 64 crosses from the right - fourth-most in the Premier League - and just 48 from the left - 11th most. Perraud’s return should help provide some balance but don’t expect Walker-Peters’ attacking influence to falter.
Off The Ball
As addressed yesterday, there are promising defensive signs from this team despite their failure to keep a clean sheet thus far in the new Premier League campaign. It’s been over a month since they last conceded more than one goal in any given game and with Armel Bella-Kotchap growing in stature, there is real potential in Hasenhuttl’s defensive unit.
A breakdown of the 11 goals Saints have conceded this season points to a few repeated patterns. Five have come from set-pieces or open-play crosses while a further three have come from counter-attacks.
Defending headers and set-pieces was a major problem last season and it has continued to linger into the new campaign, Jacob Ramsey the latest to take advantage of Saints’ weakness from dead-ball situations.
Going deeper though and there are statistics to be positive about. Saints have given up an average of 9.12 shots per game - 14th in the league - and less than they have taken themselves. Unfortunately, Saints’ opposition have ranked first in terms of shots inside the six-yard box with 17% of the shots faced coming from close-range. This is certainly not conducive to keeping the ball out of the net.
Saints have found success this season when keeping less of the ball and that has been aided by the success of their defenders one-on-one and with the ball in the air. Saints rank third in defensive duels per game and joint-first in terms of success in those duels. Additionally, they sit first for aerial duels per game.
Those statistics aren’t necessarily a sign of thrilling football with Saints’ games containing significant periods of attritional battles but clearly, this defence is not afraid to get on the front foot and make their presence felt.
Individual Highlights
It won’t be a major surprise to any Saints supporters but the numbers show that Romeo Lavia is good at football. Very good. It’s a reflection of the impact the 18-year-old has already had that his team have floundered since he suffered a hamstring injury in the win against Chelsea.
The former Manchester City midfielder leads his team in defensive duel success, winning 88.9% of his individual battles in the middle of the park. But he’s not the only new signing to impress thus far in relatively limited minutes in a Saints shirt.
Brought in from Rangers in the summer, Joe Aribo has only scored once for his new club but all of his underlying statistical numbers point to the talented player he clearly is. Aribo leads Saints in expected goals with 1.69xG - showing his proclivity for taking up dangerous areas. This is supported by his four touches per game in the box - second to only Che Adams’ 4.07 - 26th and 27th most in the Premier League respectively.
Meanwhile, despite missing the first game of the season, Armel Bella-Kotchap ranks third for tackles and interceptions with 29.
Not a new signing but handed a new lease on life, Moussa Djenepo has impressed so much this season that he’s been rewarded with a fresh three-year contract. Known for his dribbling, Djenepo does indeed lead Saints in dribbles per game with 5.37 - the 17th most in the Premier League. His 65% success rate is 8th-best in the division while Walker-Peters’ 59% success is 17th.
Speaking of Walker-Peters, the full-back is once again proving to be one of Saints’ most influential players at both ends of the pitch. Given license and responsibility to get forward and support the attack, Walker-Peters leads Saints in touches in the final third with 154 while also topping his team’s charts for the total distance forward up the pitch he’s travelled with the ball at his feet.
Walker-Peters is not only an outlet in the final third but he’s helping carry his team into the final third as well. Left out of Gareth Southgate’s England squad for the current set of internationals, he’s at the very least putting up a strong case for why he should be considered for a World Cup selection.
That's going to wrap up this edition of the Saints' Data Dump. If you want to go back and check out Part 1, click here. Thanks for reading!
A message from the Editor
Thank you for reading this article - we appreciate your support in reading the Daily Echo.
Subscribing to the Echo means you have unrestricted access to the latest news, features and Saints coverage - all with an advertising-light website.
You will also have full access to Saintsplus, your new home for Southampton FC tactical analysis, features and much, much more.
Don't take my word for it - subscribe here to see for yourself.
Follow the latest breaking news in the Southampton area by joining our Facebook group - Southampton News - Breaking News and Incidents
Follow the latest court and crime news on our dedicated Facebook group - Hampshire Court and Crime News
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here