How many matches can Southampton lose and still win promotion?

The club had been vocal about their aim to achieve automatic promotion back to the Premier League this campaign before a ball had been kicked.

With one of the biggest budgets and most attractive projects in the league, it is not a wholly unrealistic expectation to have set the new manager, Russell Martin.

Saints were last promoted from the division in 2012 with 88 points, having lost times and conceding 46 goals for an average of one per match.

In the aftermath of three consecutive defeats, Saints have been compared to Burnley’s success last season – already matching their number of total defeats in 39 fewer matches.

The Clarets walked the Championship in their first season back but three defeats is the fewest of any team in the division since 2012 and is therefore something of an outlier.  

In the same season, Sheffield United lost 11 fixtures and still sealed automatic promotion. Hull City’s 15, in 2013, is the most defeats suffered by an automatically promoted club.

Of the 24 teams to be automatically promoted since, and including Saints in 2012, the mean average of fixtures lost is 8.5.

Losing three fixtures in a row is not a promising sign, particularly in a Championship with strong, former Premier League teams, but is likely far from a death blow just yet.

On average, the automatically 24 promoted teams have amassed over 91 points – but that includes league winners who, obviously, scored above the needed threshold.

Only on three occasions, though, has less than 87 points promoted a team automatically. The fewest of any was that Hull side in 2013, registering 79.  

The Tigers also conceded the second-most goals of any automatically promoted team – shipping 52 in total across their 46 fixtures. Only 2019 winners Norwich City shipped more (57).

Working out a mean average again since the start of the 2011-12 season, the 24 automatically promoted teams typically conceded 41 goals.

Saints have already conceded 17 in seven and if the previous games were to repeat themselves, Saints would lose around 20 total, concede more than 110 goals and amass around 66 points.

On current trend, Saints are seriously underperforming even the teams who closest scraped promotion – however, this is not about plotting where they end up.

With a new manager bringing in a completely different style of play, significant player turnover and some injuries to boot, an improvement in current performance is likely.

But, based on an average season while Saints were still looking down from the Premier League, Saints want to be hitting at least 87 points and certainly conceding no more than 57 goals.

That would mean registering 77 points from the 117 available and conceding no more than 40 goals; although Martin’s style is such that you could concede three and still win.

If Saints fail to win promotion automatically come the end of the season, they will still have the playoff route to earn back their place in the Premier League.

The playoffs are a lottery but still give you, in theory, a one-in-four chance of achieving your ambitions despite failing to meet standards in the regulation season.

The total number of points won, on average, by the teams who went on to win the playoff final since 2011-12 has been just under 82. Of all 48 teams who have qualified, the average is 78.3.

In 2016-17, it took 80 points to book a place in the play-off semi-final – this is the most of any campaign. Leicester City’s 68, in 2012-13, has been the fewest. 

When working out the average points total of the teams who have finished sixth, qualifying for the playoffs in the final berth, the magic number is revealed to be around 74.

This season could be completely different but the numbers would suggest Saints need to collect 64 more points minimum from the 39 matches to be in with a shout of promotion.

The sample size is also not representative of the full history of the league and the competition in the Championship evolves each year as a result of financial disparity.

One thing is clear for Martin and Saints, though, and that is that improvement on current form will be needed for this season to be a complete success – but we already knew that.

Championship's promoted teams since 2011-12

Club - Matches lost (goals conceded) - Points total

2023

Title – Burnley – three (35GC) – 101

Automatic – Sheffield United – 11 (39GC) – 91

Playoff – Luton Town – eight (39GC) – 80

2022

Title – Fulham – 10 (43GC) – 90

Automatic – AFC Bournemouth – eight (39GC) – 88

Playoff – Nottingham Forest – 12 (45GC) – 80

2021

Title – Norwich – seven (36GC) – 97

Automatic – Watford – nine (30GC) – 91

Playoff – Brentford – seven (42GC) – 87

2020

Title – Leeds United – nine (35GC) – 93

Automatic – West Brom – seven (45GC) – 83

Playoff – Fulham – 11 (48GC) – 81

2019

Title – Norwich – six (57GC) – 94

Automatic – Sheffield United – nine (41GC) – 89

Playoff – Aston Villa – 10 (61GC) – 76

2018

Title – Wolves – seven (39GC) – 99

Automatic – Cardiff City – 10 (39GC) – 90

Playoff – Fulham – eight (46GC) – 88

2017

Title – Newcastle United – 10 (40GC) – 94

Automatic – Brighton – nine (40GC) – 93

Playoff – Huddersfield Town – 15 (58C) – 81

2016

Title – Burnley – five (35GC) – 93

Automatic – Middlesbrough – nine (31GC) – 89

Playoff – Hull City – 11 (69GC) – 83

2015

Title – AFC  Bournemouth – eight (45GC) – 90

Automatic – Watford – 11 (50GC) – 89

Playoff – Norwich – 10 (48GC) – 86

2014

Title – Leicester City – six (43GC) – 102

Automatic – Burnley – five (37GC) – 93

Playoff – QPR – 12 (44GC) – 80

2013

Title – Cardiff City – nine (45GC) – 87

Automatic – Hull City – 15 (52GC) – 79

Playoff – Crystal Palace – 12 (62GC) – 72

2012

Title – Reading – 11 (41GC) – 89

Automatic – Southampton – 10 (46GC) – 88

Playoff – West Ham – eight (48GC) – 86