Over 20,000 could die in possible Hampshire flu pandemic

Fear takes hold in Britain as each day there are more suspected victims of a lethal strain of influenza sweeping through towns and cities thousands of miles away.

The World Health Organisation raises its pandemic flu alert to the highest level and after just a couple of weeks there are already 1,000 cases in the country of origin.

Britain is on alert and emergency pandemic plans are put on standby, while the public is paranoid about the slightest headache, sore throat or cough.

But with the popularity of international air travel, stopping the flu reaching our shores is impossible.

The first suspected cases emerge within a month and the Chief Medical Officer confirms the worst when he announces the pandemic has arrived.

It takes another week or two for every major population centre in the UK to report suspected cases.

In Hampshire, people showing symptoms are isolated and the Hampshire and Isle of Wight Health Protection Unit, part of the Health Protection Agency, are called in.

The teams, based at Whiteley and Newport, on the Island, carry out testing and provide advice. It doesn’t take long for them to reveal that a pandemic influenza virus is present in Hampshire.

Residents phone in sick for work complaining of weakness, aching muscles and fever, classic symptoms of seasonal winter flu – but more severe.

People remain infectious for four to five days and after seven weeks the number of cases reaches its peak as hospitals are stretched to the limit, schools shut down and businesses grind to a halt.

Those affected are off work for up to ten days as organisations struggle on with just half their staff.

It will spread more rapidly in schools and closed communities such as prisons, army barracks and nursing homes.

Between 25 and 50 per cent of Hampshire and the Isle of Wight’s 1.8 million residents – up to 900,000 people – are struck down, of those, up to 22,500 die.

This may all sound like a nightmare scenario from a Hollywood blockbuster, but according to emergency planners pandemic influenza is the greatest threat facing the county.

Which is why they have published the Pandemic Influenza Response Framework, outlining the worst case scenario and how Hampshire is preparing for it.

According to the Hampshire and Isle of Wight Local Resilience Forum – who co-ordinate the county’s response to emergencies – a lethal flu virus is a bigger threat than a chemical spill, severe flooding or animal disease outbreak.

Pandemics are a natural phenomena but it has been 41 years since the last killer flu swept the globe and some scientists believe we are now overdue.

Hampshire PCT’s head of emergency planning Phil Hartwell said work preparing the county’s health, local government and emergency services had been accelerated over the past 14 months.

“Experts agree that there is a high probability of a flu pandemic but they can’t predict when or how serious it would be,” he said.

Unlike other disasters, such as a pollution incident, transport accident or severe weather, a pandemic would not pass in days or weeks.

The first wave would last up to three and half months and there could be multiple waves separated by weeks or months.

“With all other scenarios, the one thing you do have is plenty of staff to deal with it, but with a pandemic that’s not the case because our staff are going to be just as affected as the general public,” Mr Hartwell added.

In a worst case scenario, half of the country would be affected and 2.5 per cent of these would be fatal – resulting in 750,000 deaths, including 22,500 in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight.

Express funerals, round-the-clock cremations, mass graves and containers turned into makeshift morgues would be needed to handle the unprecedented number of deaths.

The last major scare was the H5N1 strain – or bird flu – that killed 243 people when it spread through China, Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam between June 2006 and June 2007.

A vaccine for H5N1 has since been developed, however only enough has been ordered to protect frontline healthcare workers.

The Government has also stockpiled enough courses of Tamiflu, an antiviral medication, to treat a quarter of Britain’s population and plans to increase stock sufficiently to treat half of the country.

Once a pandemic outbreak is confirmed the medication would be distributed to every PCT.

Patients showing symptoms would be able to get hold of the treatment, which reduces the duration of the illness by about a day, and advice by phoning a special National Pandemic Flu Line.

If it is a new strain, scientists will work frantically to develop a vaccine.

This could take up to six months, but will be given to every person in Britain as soon as possible.

In the meantime, sufferers will be told to stay at home and it’s likely hospitals will be able to treat only the most severe cases.

The team in charge of co-ordinating the response, which will include police, firefighters, councils and health services, will operate from Hampshire police’s support and training HQ at Netley.

Chaired by the police, the group will have executive power to manage issues ranging from excess bodies to humanitarian assistance and monitoring community tension.

Mr Hartwell said: “One of the biggest difficulties when planning for a pandemic is that at this stage the virus doesn’t exist, so we really don’t know what the impact will be.

“The planning assumptions have been made looking at previous pandemics and working out what the levels of severity would be based on what we know.”

Perhaps the most stark lesson is that between 1918 and 1919 the Spanish flu killed about 40 million people worldwide – compared with 15 million during the First World War.

The figures may be unfathomable, but the message to everyone is to prepare because it will happen, one day.

TIMELINE IT BEGINS A future influenza pandemic could occur at any time.

TWO TO FOUR WEEKS Number of suspected cases reaches 1,000 in the country of origin.

SIX TO EIGHT WEEKS Pandemic reaches Britain.

NINE WEEKS First suspected cases are isolated immediately for testing and antivirals distributed to every PCT.

TEN TO 11 WEEKS Cases reported at every major population centre as people remain infectious for four to five days.

18 TO 19 WEEKS The outbreak reaches its peak 50 days after initial entry into Britain.

Between 25 and 50 per cent of the county could be affected and up to 22,500 could die in Hampshire.

22 to 23 WEEKS The first wave of flu passes, but more waves could follow weeks or months later.

24 WEEKS Scientists develop a vaccine that is made available to everyone as soon as possible.