The life of a stockbroker has never been straightforward but one thing is clear according to Keith Field, investment manager responsible for running the Southampton office of one of the largest stockbroking firms in the country.

Just now, when share prices are plummeting, is not the time for investors in the south to give up on share portfolios or pensions and savings schemes.

"Ups and downs tend to be exaggerated, perhaps more than in most other walks of life,'' admits Mr Field, of stockbroking firm Charles Stanley. "But this has been a testing time for stockbrokers. We try to look forward to better trends but the immediate market moves have a tendency to keep biting us on the backside.

"In the UK there are very clear signs of rapidly diminishing confidence among businessmen and we have wide disparities in the fortunes of different sectors of the economy,'' he said.

"Perhaps it is too optimistic but the interest rate cuts of 2001/2 will kick in at some stage to stimulate economic recovery. Along the way, Mr Brown,

the Chancellor has to assist more and perhaps we may see him reverse policies that have diminished the attractiveness of investing in industry.

"I firmly believe that there will be a stimulus to a quick bounce from these levels and take markets in to a higher treading range. Although it is probable that markets will trade in fairly narrow bands over the new few months at least, invested capital still needs to be managed.

"Many good quality companies provide an income yield well in excess of cash deposits and this allows some risk premium so that modest capital growth on top of this will give an excellent comparative return. Of course, investors should be defensive at the moment but there are opportunities to buy good value and this could help to overcome the ravages of the last few years.

"In general terms, re-positioning of portfolios should continue so that they allow for the change in current conditions and future outlook.

"It is impossible to say that we are at the bottom of the market at the moment, but I am convinced that it will, at some stage go above these levels and then start to grow again.

"Thus gradually buying on days of weakness could prove the sensible and most profitable strategy in years to come. Those who have regular saving schemes such as pensions are likely to rue the day if they cancel them now.''

He says the amazing thing is that everyone has been caught out by the carnage in stock markerts since September 2001. The government has budgeted for growth in equity values and the taxes that come from that.

Insurance companies, pension funds and many of the largest and most successful companies around the world appear to have all got it wrong. Predictions made from economic theory and historic comparison have simply failed and the reality has hurt.

"It would appear that the economic realities of the immediate and ongoing impact of 9/11; the threats of terrorism and the potential for war in the Middle East have been far more depressing than anticipated. The declines back to new lows during 2002, following corporate scandals, gradually sucked confidence out of markets and subsequently affected consumer and corporate activity at a time when the talk of war gathered momentum. Clearly the pervading trend if one of slowing global growth and a loss of confidence in market valuations, and this has led the markets down again.

"Markets have not performed in this manner before and because there are so many uncertainties, many pundits are being unusually vague in their prognosis for market levels a year hence. Nonetheless, we have to look forward, although I do not think that we will see a pattern re-emerging in market behaviour until the geopolitical situation is resolved.''